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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 27 January 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made ...
Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
This week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s pre ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $AU 15.279 BILLION WORTH OF 161.399 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,453.1 M ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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