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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 July 17
COAL HAS CONTINUED A STELLAR RUN OVER THE PAST YEAR GAINING ~10% OVER THE PAST QUARTER AND ~41% OVER THE PAST YEAR - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Having just passed the second quarter of 2017, it is interesting to take a look at the performance of the commodity market and how certain commodit ...
Monday, 10 July 17
A ROLLERCOASTER YEAR FOR COAL PRICES; ICPR ROSE 4.62% M/M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 4.62% in July, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal c ...
Monday, 10 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market decline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a negative trend week over week ...
Friday, 07 July 17
SHOULD WE BE AVOIDING GENERAL AVERAGE? - ALEX KEMP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Calls for general average to be abolished are nearly as old as the regime itself. A representative of Lloyd’s atten ...
Friday, 07 July 17
EIA ESTIMATES SHOW U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.7 PERCENT
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.9 million short tonn ...
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Showing 2006 to 2010 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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