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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 06 July 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA TRIPS WITH DELIVERY THAILAND RANGE IS GIVING OWNERS AROUND MID $8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Another slow start to the week with somewhat softening rates and few fixtures.
According to Fearnleys Weekly Dry bulk report, the N ...
Thursday, 06 July 17
UNEXPECTED MOVE FROM CHINA BOOSTS COAL PRICES - OIL PRICE
Coal prices have been cooling the last few months — after a spectacular run last year. But news late last week suggests the market is about t ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
COAL PRICES ROSE IN CHINA, JAPAN AND EUROPE IN 2016 - BP
COALspot.com: Coal prices rose in China, Japan and Europe in 2016 after four years of price declines.
According to bp, the rise in coal prices ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
A war of words blasted last month as the UAE, S. Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain revealed that they are experiencing severe diplomatic issues with the st ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
TROUBLE SEEMS TO BE LOOMING ONCE MORE IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trouble seems to be looming once more in the steel industry as US President Trump puts forth his plans for specialist protectionist measures for th ...
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Showing 2011 to 2015 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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