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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 26 July 17
SHIPPIPNG MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
After an admittedly challenging 2016, the Dry Bulk market kicked off this year on a much more positive note, with all indices steadily increasing u ...
Monday, 24 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a positive trend week over week.
...
Friday, 21 July 17
ESTIMATED WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 15.3 MMST; UP 13.5% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 20 July 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS ARE TRADING AROUND MID/HIGH $11K WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive week again in the Pacific with rates moving upwards.
According to Fearnleys Weekly Dry bulk report, Nopac rounds are pay ...
Wednesday, 19 July 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Referring back to a previous Intermodal insight that was written in the first quarter of 2017, the author at the time had claimed that MR tanker ra ...
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Showing 1996 to 2000 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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