We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 30 June 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIGHTLY DOWN
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tonn ...
Wednesday, 28 June 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
From the beginning of the year until now SnP activity has changed significantly. To put things into perspective, after a fast and furious q1 on the ...
Monday, 26 June 17
PANAMAX/KAMARMAXES HAD A STRONG WEEK WITH RATES RISING IN MOST AREAS OF THE MARKET - BALTICEXCHANGE
Capesize
A dark cloud appeared to have descended over the market for the big ships with rates continuing to slide in all areas. There was a repor ...
Friday, 23 June 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 15.8 MMST; UP 1.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.8 million short tonn ...
Wednesday, 21 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - SHIPPING
Looking back at March and April shipping reports when the dry bulk indexes were starting to move up, a number of shipping analysts were stating tha ...
|
|
|
Showing 2016 to 2020 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
|
| |
| |
|
