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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 04 August 17
IMPORTED COAL CONTINUES TO BE A COMPETITIVE, SAFE AND RELIABLE ENERGY SOURCE FOR GERMANY - VDKI
COALspot.com: Worldwide hard coal production in 2016 declined by 3.8% to 6.7 billion tonnes.
According to the Germany Coal Importers Associati ...
Thursday, 03 August 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE GETTING FIXED AROUND MID $8000 - FEARNLEYS
In the Pacific rates have remained weak and under pressure this week with most routes softening.
Indo/China coal rounds are getting fixed arou ...
Thursday, 03 August 17
BUMI RESOURCES COAL SALES RELATIVELY FLAT AT 41.5 MILLION TONS IN 1H' 17; REPORTS US$162.3 MILLION PROFIT IN FIRST SEMESTER
COALspot.com: The BUMI Resources, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal producer, has reported a net income of $162.3 million in 1H’ 17 c ...
Wednesday, 02 August 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
During the duration of the first half of the year, the dry bulk market saw intense buying interest that boosted SnP prices significantly. We saw a ...
Monday, 31 July 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 750K MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 750,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for its B ...
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Showing 1986 to 1990 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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