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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 31 July 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.08 PERCENT LESS COAL IN JUNE 2017 COMPARED TO ITS MAY LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,442.8 ...
Monday, 31 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market decline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Panamax indexes show a negative trend week over w ...
Friday, 28 July 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.4% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 27 July 17
CAMPBELL SHIPPING APPOINTS ISS FOR GLOBAL HUSBANDRY REPRESENTATION SERVICES CONTRACT - ISS
COALspot.com: Inchcape Shipping Services (ISS) is delighted to announce that it has secured a global husbandry representation contract with Campbel ...
Thursday, 27 July 17
A VOLATILE WEEK IN THE CAPE MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The black sea still performing well although bit fewer fixtures concluded/reported. Rates lie somewhere around 18 -19 on front-haul . Bo ...
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Showing 1991 to 1995 news of total 6871 |
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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