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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 08 August 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 5200 AND 5700 NAR COAL FOR Q4 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for 420,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal ...
Monday, 07 August 17
INDIA'S THERMAL COAL IMPORTS HAVE FALLEN BY 16% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: The second quarter of 2017 was characterized by volatility in the coal market driven by policy measures and weather disruptions say A ...
Monday, 07 August 17
BUMA SIGNED $385 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT PADA IDI
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into min ...
Monday, 07 August 17
THE SHIPPING INDEXES BOUNCE BACK THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positive trend week ove ...
Friday, 04 August 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short tonn ...
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Showing 1981 to 1985 news of total 6871 |
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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