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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 03 October 17
ALLIED MARKET ANALYSIS
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Friday, 29 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FIFTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
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Thursday, 28 September 17
SUPRAMAX: S.CHINA TRIP TO INDIA HAS BEEN FIXED AT AROUND US$ 11000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
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Thursday, 28 September 17
THE 'UNREASONABLE' COST OF CASUALTY REPAIRS: ASSOCIATION OF AVERAGE ADJUSTERS CHAIRMAN DETAILS CLAIMS DILEMMAS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ‘unreasonable’ cost of casualty repairs: Association of Average Adjusters chairman details claims dilemma ...
Thursday, 28 September 17
CHINESE GOVERNMENT TO CANCEL DOMESTIC IRON ORE MINING RIGHTS - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
It has been reported that China will cancel roughly one third of its iron ore mining licenses, says Commodore Research & Consultancy in its lat ...
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Showing 1926 to 1930 news of total 6871 |
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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