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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 September 17
REDUCING THE RISK OF LIQUEFACTION - IUMI
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Liquefaction is a phenomenon that can take place in granular materials, such as soil or fine ore, where the beh ...
Tuesday, 26 September 17
THE CURRENT HIGHS IN THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET WILL SURELY BE SURPASSED AND BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN IN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market con!nues to show a strong face amidst the favorable tail winds being seen, which have helped the Bal!c Dry Index inch above the ...
Monday, 25 September 17
CHOICES FOR SHIPPING AS 2020 APPROACHES? - CLARKSONS
Historically, the fuel of choice for the vast majority of large cargo ships has been heavy fuel oil. But in 2020, sulphur oxide emissions will be c ...
Monday, 25 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE IN ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments except Panamax week over week. Mainly Cape has supported to boosted up BDI this past week, BD ...
Monday, 25 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FOURTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million short ton ...
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Showing 1931 to 1935 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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