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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 12 October 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES IN EUROPE AND ASIA PUSHING HIGHER - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets took the lead from the oil market, with thermal coal prices in Europe and Asia pushing higher says Daniel Hynes,Senior Commodity Strat ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
2020 DEBATE AT IBIA'S LISW EVENT: COMPLIANCE & ENFORCEMENT – IT'S COMPLICATED : IBIA
There is no doubt about the start date for the 0.50% marine fuel sulphur limit in MARPOL Annex VI, but questions remain around how it will be enfor ...
Wednesday, 11 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PPADIMITRIOU
With the majority of second-hand tonnage transactions taking place in the dry bulk sector it’s easy to lose sight of what is happening over a ...
Tuesday, 10 October 17
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - UK P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
- It is common in a lot of trades, whether bulk or oil, to accept a Letter of Indemnity (“LOI”) for non-produ ...
Monday, 09 October 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS NEW HIGH FOR 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 2.13% in October month over month, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchmark pr ...
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Showing 1916 to 1920 news of total 6871 |
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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