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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 09 October 17
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS UP 10% IN SEPT AS POWER PLANTS FACE FUEL SHORTAGE - PTI
Coal imports rose by 9.5 per cent to 18.33 million tonnes (MT) in September, after having registered year-on-year decline for five months in a row, ...
Friday, 06 October 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT HAS REBOUNDED AFTER DECLINING 5 WEEKS IN A ROW
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 04 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
During the past couple of months the dry bulk market has displayed particularly strong momentum and we have been witnessing steady appetite and act ...
Tuesday, 03 October 17
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED THERMAL POWER DEPENDENT ON CHINA - VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
A report from the Green Innovation and Development Centre (GreenID) showed that, as of the end of last year, of 27 coal-fired thermopower plants, 1 ...
Tuesday, 03 October 17
RIO TINTO COMPLETES FIRST FULLY AUTONOMOUS RAIL JOURNEY IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Rio Tinto has successfully completed the first fully autonomous rail journey at its iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia ...
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Showing 1921 to 1925 news of total 6871 |
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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