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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 20 February 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORT RISES BY 12 PER CENT TO 18 MILLION TONNES IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal import increased by 12.4 per cent to 18.49 million tonnes (MT) in January, against 16.
44 MT in the same month of the ...
Monday, 19 February 18
JOINT INSURANCE - WHY SHOULD YOU CARE? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is neither controversial nor new to say that co-assureds under a joint insurance policy cannot claim against each othe ...
Friday, 16 February 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DOWN 4.5 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 15 February 18
INDIA: THERMAL POWER PLANTS UNDER STRESS ON RISING COAL, FREIGHT COSTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal-based power plants are feeling the heat of spike in thermal grade coal prices and railway freight costs.
Prices of thermal grade coal sin ...
Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 o ...
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Showing 1801 to 1805 news of total 6871 |
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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