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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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Showing 176 to 180 news of total 6871 |
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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