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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
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Friday, 25 November 22
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Thursday, 24 November 22
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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