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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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