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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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