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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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