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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
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Showing 1786 to 1790 news of total 6871 |
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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