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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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