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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 12 March 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FINDS ITS FOOTING - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Some relief for owners as the week closed out with the market finding a floor in the East. Rates on the key West Australia/China run loo ...
Monday, 12 March 18
COAL OUTPUT FROM PRIVATE MINERS UNLIKELY TO RISE IN MEDIUM TERM: ICRA
Coal output levels from private commercial miners are unlikely to go up considerably in the medium to short term, given the issues related to land ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS
As per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to import coal from the source of their choi ...
Saturday, 10 March 18
THE 'RENOS' - COURT OF APPEAL CLARIFIES CTL CALCULATION AND RIGHT OF ABANDONMENT - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the matter of the “RENOS”, Mr Justice Knowles addressed a number of issues, at first instance, regarding t ...
Friday, 09 March 18
THE WORLD CANNOT KEEP IGNORING THE ASIAN COAL STORY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
There were significant changes in the global energy system in 2017, including the growth in electric vehicles, the rise of renewables and the conti ...
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Showing 1776 to 1780 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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