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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 20 March 18
TRAFIGURA GROUP PTE LTD SIGNS RECORD US$5.725 BILLION EUROPEAN MULTICURRENCY SYNDICATED REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITIES AND JPY72.64 BILLION DENOMINATED THREE YEAR TERM LOAN
Press Release: Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. (“Trafigura” or the “Company”), a market leader in the global commodities industry, ...
Monday, 19 March 18
PANAMAX: DESPITE FEWER REPORTED PERIOD TRADES THIS WEEK, RATE LEVELS HAVE REMAINED SOLID - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
There were finally reports of increased Brazil activity, but still largely unconfirmed. Vale reportedly took six ships Thursday for 5 Ap ...
Friday, 16 March 18
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.9 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.8 million short tons ...
Friday, 16 March 18
INDONESIA COAL PRICE CAP POSES LIMITED RISKS TO PRODUCERS : FITCH
Indonesia’s cap on the benchmark price of coal sold to the domestic electricity sector is unlikely to have a significant impact on the credit ...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW $13K TO S. CHINA AND HIGH $13K TO NORTH IN CHINA
Supramax
More activity from USG , front hauls to Far East have settled around $25000, and to Cont around $20000. Stable gain again in Black Sea w ...
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Showing 1766 to 1770 news of total 6871 |
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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