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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 11 April 18
CHINA UTILITIES PLAN NEW COAL IMPORT PRICE INDEX TO CURB VOLATILITY - REUTERS
China’s major utilities are preparing to launch their own coal price index for imports, an official at China Huaneng Group said, in a move th ...
Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most li ...
Tuesday, 10 April 18
BUMA GRANTED ADDITIONAL LOAN FACILITY FROM BTMU TO SUPPORT GROWTH
Press Release: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), signed an a ...
Monday, 09 April 18
APRIL INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST IN 2018
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) decline 6.98 per cent in April 2018 compared to Mar ...
Friday, 06 April 18
TOP MINER BHP QUITS WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION OVER CLIMATE CLASH - BLOOMBERG
BHP Billiton Ltd. has severed ties with the World Coal Association over a clash of views on how to combat climate change, with the mining giant say ...
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Showing 1746 to 1750 news of total 6871 |
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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