We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
|
|
|
Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
