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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
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