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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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Showing 1736 to 1740 news of total 6871 |
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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