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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 07 May 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER ISSUED A TENDER FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Monday, 07 May 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND ROSE ABOUT 1% IN 2017; ASIA ACCOUNTED FOR THE LARGEST INCREASE IN COAL DEMAND, UP 35 MTOE RELATIVE TO 2016 - IEA
Global coal demand rose about 1% in 2017, reversing the declining trend seen over the last two years. This growth was mainly due to demand in Asia, ...
Friday, 04 May 18
ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES WAS SECOND ONLY TO COAL IN 2017 - IEA
World electricity demand increased by 3.1 %, significantly higher than the overall increase in energy demand. Together, China and India accounted f ...
Thursday, 03 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO - CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW-MID $12000 BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
As expected a slow and uneventful start to the week with holidays in many countries, however by mid-week some fresh requirements and pos ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
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Showing 1726 to 1730 news of total 6871 |
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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