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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 21 June 18
CHINESE REDUCED COAL IMPORT RESTRICTIONS - CAIXIN GLOBAL
Caixin Global reported that the Chinese government has reduced restrictions on coal imports at the nation’s major ports in response to concer ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
INDIAN GOVERNMENT ADMITS COAL SHORTAGE, ASKS DISCOMS TO IMPORT - TIMES OF INDIA
Times of India reported that the power ministry has advised all state governments and private power distribution companies to import coal as Coal I ...
Tuesday, 19 June 18
WCA RESPONDS TO BP STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2018
Responding to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, Benjamin Sporton, Chief Executive of the World Coal Association (WCA) said, &ldqu ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 2% TO 756 MILLION SHORT TONS MMST IN 2018 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decline by 2% to 756 million short tons (MMst) in 2018.
According to EIA's Short-Term Ener ...
Wednesday, 13 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2018 marks quite a few milestones for Greek Shipping. No need to detail again the greatness of Greek Shipping or the singular position that Greek s ...
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Showing 1696 to 1700 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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