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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 29 June 18
THE LBH GROUP AND RHENUS PLAN TO ESTABLISH A JOINT COMPANY
Press Release: The port services provider, the LBH Group, and the logistics specialist Rhenus, are planning to cooperate closely in the European in ...
Friday, 29 June 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO / CHINA COAL ROUNDS PAYING AROUND USD HIGH 11000 - FEARNLYS
Capesize
Its been an interesting week with a strong demand for ships out of Brazil, making C3 rates remain around USD 19 pmt said Fearnlys in i ...
Friday, 29 June 18
JAPAN'S TOHOKU ELEC, GLENCORE ABANDON APRIL-MARCH COAL CONTRACT TALKS - REUTERS
Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Glencore Plc have abandoned talks on annual thermal coal supplies after failing to reach an agreemen ...
Wednesday, 27 June 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
After the abolishment of the trade embargo against Iran, there was a lot of optimism from the country’s side, as after quite some time a numb ...
Tuesday, 26 June 18
"ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE": ARRIVAL, DEPARTURE OR BOTH? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An “always accessible” berth warranty is often used by an owner to transfer the risk of delays in berthing to ...
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Showing 1686 to 1690 news of total 6871 |
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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