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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 05 June 18
THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE PROMISING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Just as we thought the world was calming back down to reason, worries and frictions regarding global trade resurfaced this past week after a series ...
Tuesday, 05 June 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IS GOING UP AGAIN
COALspot.com: According to latest ministerial decree No. 1857 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 4 June 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) up 7.91 pe ...
Saturday, 02 June 18
HOW CARBON UTILISATION WILL BE A KEY STEP IN INDIA'S CLIMATE STRATEGY - BENJAMIN SPORTON
For India, energy remains the key driver of growth, not only from an economic perspective but more importantly for accelerating social development. ...
Thursday, 31 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV IS GETTING FIXED AROUND $13K DELIVERY SINGAPORE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Cape market has been on a downward trend for the past week.
According to Fearnleys, Oslo based broker, Brazil market ...
Wednesday, 30 May 18
HIGH PRICE, DMO ENCOURAGE COAL MINERS TO BOOST PRODUCTION - THE JAKARTA POST
A number of coal miners are planning to increase production by 10 percent in the second half of this year after a worldwide price increase.
Th ...
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Showing 1706 to 1710 news of total 6871 |
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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