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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 June 18
A SHARP RISE IN THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL WAS TO BE SEEN ON FRIDAY, ITS BIGGEST DAILY GAIN IN TWO YEARS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
A sharp rise in the price of crude oil was to be seen on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two years, as OPEC reached a deal to raise output. Despi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.179 MT OF COAL IN MAY; DOWN 14.77% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU1,453.6 Mi ...
Monday, 25 June 18
COAL IN THE CROSSFIRE: CHINESE TRADERS WARY OF BEING BURNT BY TRADE WAR - REUTERS
At least three U.S. coal shipments on their way to China may end up casualties of the escalating trade dispute after Beijing said it would impose s ...
Saturday, 23 June 18
COAL GROUP TARGETS 9 PER CENT REVENUE SPIKE - VIET NAM NEWS
Viet Nam News reported, the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin or TKV) is targeting VNĐ116.9 trillion (US$5.1 billion) ...
Thursday, 21 June 18
ROBUST ASIAN THERMAL COAL DEMAND CREATES OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIA - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Minerals Council of Australia reported, Australia’s world-class coal mining industry can create more jobs in Australia and strengthen t ...
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Showing 1691 to 1695 news of total 6871 |
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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