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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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