We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
Monday, 02 July 18
THIESS SECURES NEW QCOAL NORTHERN HUB $480M CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a new A$480 million contract by QCoal to continue operations at the QCoal Northern Hub located in Queensland’s Bowen ...
|
|
|
Showing 1681 to 1685 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
