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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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