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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 28 August 18
SUPRAMAX: A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA PAID $13,500 ON A 56,000DWT TO WC INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Singapore holiday mid-week disrupted trading and unsettled the market, with owners losing some resilience. The market took on a la ...
Tuesday, 28 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
As we edge close to the start of the Autumn Season, a period within the year that is usually characterized as the pivot point from the final quarte ...
Friday, 24 August 18
KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SULPHUR IMPACTING HUNTER EXPORTS - THE HERALD
WARNINGS that Korean restrictions on sulphur levels in coal could hurt the Hunter industry appear to have been accurate, according to a report in t ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
RUSSIA'S MECHEL PRODUCED 9.69 MMT OF RUN-OF-MINE COAL IN 1H'2018
Mechel PAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies, announces 1H2018 operational results.
Mechel PAO’s Chief E ...
Thursday, 23 August 18
SUPRAMAX: SOME FRESH COAL CARGOES APPEARED IN SE ASIA, GIVING A BIT PRESSURE ON RATES FOR END AUGUST SHIPMENTS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Slightly softer but generally very healthy for the big ships, with limited supply of early tonnage and positive Brazilian ore export v ...
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Showing 1636 to 1640 news of total 6871 |
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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