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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 22 August 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 480K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 480,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Wednesday, 22 August 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
During the most quite week of the summer period we witnessed a trade war between United States and Turkey. A battle, which started with the arrest ...
Monday, 20 August 18
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE BSI INDEX WITH GAINS MADE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of largely unfulfilled expectations with holidays again curbing activity. Rates remained essentially healthy, but despite bad wea ...
Friday, 17 August 18
DO ARBITRATION AGREEMENTS IN BILLS OF LADING BIND THEIR HOLDERS? - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bills of lading are a crucial part of the security package traditionally sought by trade finance providers.
...
Friday, 17 August 18
MALAYSIA'S MANJUNG 4 - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
According to the IEA’s Energy Access Outlook 2017 report, nearly all of those who gained access to electricity worldwide in the last 16 years ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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