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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 16 August 18
COAL PRODUCTION AT 37.11 PERCENT OF FULL-YEAR TARGET - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production was recorded at 180 million tons on Wednesday, or 37.11 percent of the government’s 485 million target this year.
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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed ...
Tuesday, 14 August 18
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS SHOWN A TREMENDOUS COURSE DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS - THOMAS CHASAPIS
The Capesize market has shown a tremendous course during the past 12 months, having quickly climbed out of the “hole that it had found itself ...
Monday, 13 August 18
A 50,200 DWT FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $10,000S - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Expectations of a further push in the market were largely unfulfilled last week as rates come under pressure in Asia as the North Atla ...
Friday, 10 August 18
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECLINE BY 1.8% IN 2019 BECAUSE COAL EXPORTS AND COAL CONSUMPTION ARE BOTH FORECAST TO DECREASE - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1.1% to 766 million short tons (MMst) in 2018 despite a 5.7% (6 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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