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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
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Showing 1511 to 1515 news of total 6871 |
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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