We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
|
|
|
Showing 1506 to 1510 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
