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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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