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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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