We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
|
|
|
Showing 1481 to 1485 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
