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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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