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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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