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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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Showing 1446 to 1450 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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