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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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Showing 1436 to 1440 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
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