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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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Showing 1441 to 1445 news of total 6871 |
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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