We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
|
|
|
Showing 1451 to 1455 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
