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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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