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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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